US Dollar Takes On The Swiss Franc

Added: January 18, 2010

The Swiss franc had a battle on its hands during the last month of 2009 when the US dollar decided to up its game and see what it could achieve by way of a better exchange rate.

The starting exchange rate on the currency converter was very close to parity, as the US dollar claimed 1.0031 as the month kicked off. Indeed, first blood went to the Swiss franc as the exchange rate fell back to 0.9975 on the 3rd of the month. The US dollar managed to pull back slightly and end the week just under parity at 0.9996 though, so there was now a question over which currency would get the upper hand in the following week.

The US dollar enjoyed a nice leap up to 1.0227 on the first day back after the weekend, and then improved steadily to peak at 1.0260 on the penultimate day of the week. It fell back slightly on Friday to close out the week’s trading on 1.0249 but things could have been worse.

The following week was more positive though when the US dollar climbed back up to claim 1.0400 Swiss francs on the 15th December. If it could continue in this vein it would have a very successful month all in all. But there was a long way to go just yet.

The high point of that week was once again on Thursday with a rate of 1.0495, but again we saw a slight fall on the Friday which spoiled the good work done so far. It didn’t fall by much though and the closing rate as we headed into the weekend was 1.0433. The question now was whether the US dollar could stay up in those figures, or whether it would drop back once more. It would be good to stay away from parity but since there have been ups and downs so far, anything could yet happen.

A drop back to 1.0396 by the end of the first day of Christmas week didn’t look good, but any butterflies in the stomach of traders were assuaged the following day. That day ended on a rather better 1.0495.

But even though that was good news the rate fell to 1.0433 on the 23rd and the dollar finished up on an even lower 1.0336 as we went into the Christmas break. It certainly gave us all something to think about, but at least the Swiss would have been grateful for the improved situation from their point of view.

The highest point for the dollar from then on, in the week between Christmas and New Year, was 1.0376. This occurred on the 30th but the final say went to the Swiss franc, as it knocked the dollar back down to just 1.0298 as the old year disappeared.

Overall the US dollar had still managed to add on a total of 0.0267 overall, but it could have been so much more had it been able to hang on to its best exchange rate for the month.

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Market Interventions

Posted by John Miller at Mar 01, 2010 12:46 AM

It seems unreasonable for the US to take such a hard stand against China’s currency intervention when the Swiss are clearly controlling the franc through orchestrated market activity. It doesn’t matter how many times the Swiss central bank denies they are intervening in the market. Analysts can spot it when it happens. I realize that the US and China have billions at stake in terms of imports/exports, but any market intervention creates some level of currency instability. You can track technical charts all day long, but when an intervention occurs there will be unanticipated ripple effects.

The markets have not operated normally in many months and continued intervention is really like a government stimulus program. How long do you continue to do it? Does the currency market actually come to rely on the periodic interventions? It is similar to the derivative bubble in terms of false results. How do you know what the currency is really worth until it is allowed to function normally? The derivative market was propped up by the sale of worthless security bundles. The currency market is being propped up by market interventions. It is not just happening in Switzerland and China either. There are Latin American countries trying to control their currency values also.