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July 30, 2010
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Can The US Dollar Start The Year Right Against The Euro?

This is always an exciting currency pairing to look at, and what better way to kick off our report of the first month of the New Year than to look at what happened between these two?

Back on New Year’s Eve the US dollar was claiming 0.6941 Euros, so the next step was to improve on that by going over the 0.70 threshold.  But how long would it be before the US currency could manage those figures on the currency converter, and would it happen this month or not?

The first day back in January saw a slight increase to 0.6949 but it didn’t last long.  The following day it dropped back to 0.6924 again, so it was clear we were going to be in for a tussle here.  Two days later the dollar improved again to 0.6991 – and that gave it the momentum it needed to achieve its goal.  It closed out the week by claiming 0.7006 Euros against the dollar.

So what happened next?  Would the dollar be able to keep up the pressure or would it crumble and not regain those heights again?

As it turned out the Euro was about to fight back.  The first task was achieved on Monday as the Euro knocked the US dollar back down to 0.6883.  From here on in it was a tough week and eventually the dollar closed on 0.6957 – slightly better but still not going back over the 0.70 barrier.

But just two days into the next week it did manage to regain that territory, with a rate of 0.7003 on the cards.  Things got better from there on in too, with a peak rate of 0.7110 just one day before the week closed.  The final exchange rate recorded by the US dollar against the Euro was 0.7074.

We were fast approaching the end of the month now but it was still all to play for.  Even though the US dollar seemed to be largely in charge things can change very quickly.  Would they do that here or did the dollar have the battle won already?

The final week opened with a rate of 0.7066, representing just a slight drop for the US dollar.  The next day saw it jump back up to 0.7099 though, after which there was no stopping it.  Whether it was a case of the Euro giving up under the repeated pressure or whether the US dollar was just on a good run, it doesn’t matter in the final analysis.  What matters is that the dollar had an exchange rate the following day of 0.7106.

It then climbed steadily over the next two days to reach a final rate of 0.7160 as the month came to a close.  That meant the US dollar had enjoyed a good month all in all, adding on the equivalent of just over two Euros against the European single currency.

But will it be a different story next month?

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What If Greece Was Not in Trouble

Avatar Posted by Jim Kelley at Feb 16, 2010 02:24 AM
I believe much of the strength in the US dollar is due to Greece's problems creating uncertainty in the Euro-Zone. Actually it was Ireland and Spain that first showed signs of financial weakness and debt problems, but Greece is overshadowing all the other member nations with a 12.7% budget deficit. Of course, the frequent civil employee strikes in Greece also show a lack of resolve among the Greece citizens. Are they willing to tighten their belts or not? Greece's President says yes, but the citizenry doesn't seem to be agreeing. In the meantime, the US dollar is not strengthening so much as the euro is weakening. But if the European Commission can find a way to deal with Greece that leads to economic progress, the US dollar will probably begin trending downward again. The US has severe problems in the housing market that remain unresolved (foreclosures, toxic assets, etc) and it's going to drag the recovery and the economy down over the next 2 years. Once the import/export markets return to some kind of normality, investors are going to rush towards emerging market currencies and the euro looking for profits.

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